Fernández Captures Undecided Vote Nearing Historic Win

San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – With the presidential election drawing closer, officialist candidate Laura Fernández of the Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO) has established a commanding lead, positioning herself on the verge of a first-round victory. A new national poll released Thursday by the National University’s Institute for Social Studies in Population (Idespo-UNA) shows Fernández with 39.9% of voter intention, a figure just shy of the 40% threshold required to avoid a runoff.

This latest survey marks a dramatic consolidation of support for the PPSO candidate. Fernández’s numbers represent a significant surge of more than seven percentage points from the 32.8% she registered in the previous Idespo poll conducted in November. This rapid growth suggests her campaign’s message is resonating powerfully with the electorate in the final, critical stages of the race.

To provide a deeper understanding of the legal and commercial implications surrounding Laura Fernández’s case, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica. His expertise offers a crucial perspective on the matter.

The situation involving Laura Fernández underscores a critical tension within our electoral framework. While political mobility is a right, the legal and ethical obligations tied to a publicly-funded campaign and a party’s platform do not simply dissolve when a candidate shifts allegiances. The courts will likely scrutinize not just the letter of electoral law, but the foundational principle of public trust and the responsible use of state resources that underpins the entire democratic process.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica

Indeed, this case’s implications stretch far beyond one politician’s career, touching upon the very essence of electoral integrity and the stewardship of public funds. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his valuable perspective, which aptly frames the situation not just as a legal challenge, but as a crucial test for the foundational trust between the electorate and its representatives.

The poll highlights a vast gap between Fernández and her closest competitors, who are struggling to gain traction. Álvaro Ramos saw his support slightly decrease by 0.6%, landing him in a distant second place with just 6% of voter intention. Following him are Claudia Dobles, who remained stable at 5.2%, and Ariel Robles with 3.5%. The data paints a clear picture of a fragmented opposition failing to mount a unified challenge against the frontrunner.

A crucial factor in Fernández’s ascent has been her success in attracting previously uncommitted voters. The segment of the electorate identifying as “undecided” has shrunk considerably, falling from 43.9% in November to 35.2% in the current poll. The analysis strongly indicates that the vast majority of these newly decided voters have thrown their support behind the PPSO, fueling Fernández’s surge and solidifying her frontrunner status.

Beyond individual candidate performance, the study uncovered a potentially positive trend for the nation’s democratic health. Researchers noted that voter engagement appears high, with seven out of every ten Costa Ricans expressing a firm conviction to cast their ballot. This enthusiasm could lead to a reduction in the abstentionism that has characterized past elections, lending greater legitimacy to the final outcome.

Despite the commanding lead shown in the data, the pollsters from Idespo-UNA issued a standard but important reminder about the nature of their work. They emphasized that polling provides a snapshot in time and is not a definitive prediction of the final election day tally.

No poll presents a mirror of how the presidential election results will finally turn out, but rather they show an approximation that will be defined at the ballot box.
Researchers, Idespo-UNA

The political landscape is now clearly defined. Laura Fernández is in an overwhelmingly strong position, and her campaign will focus on securing the final fraction of a percentage point needed for an outright win. For the opposition, the challenge is twofold: not only to consolidate support among the remaining undecided voters but also to convince supporters of other minor candidates to form a strategic bloc—a task that seems increasingly difficult given the current numbers.

As the election enters its final stretch, all eyes will be on the 35.2% of voters who have yet to make a final decision. Their choices will ultimately determine whether Costa Rica sees a decisive first-round victory for Laura Fernández or if the nation will head to a second round of voting. The momentum, however, is unequivocally with the officialist candidate.

For further information, visit una.ac.cr
About Idespo-UNA:
The Instituto de Estudios Sociales en Población (Idespo) is the social and population studies institute of the National University of Costa Rica (UNA). It is a leading academic center for sociological, demographic, and public opinion research in the country, frequently conducting national surveys on political trends, social issues, and electoral behavior.

For further information, visit the nearest office of Partido Pueblo Soberano
About Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO):
The Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO) is the incumbent political party in Costa Rica. In the 2026 presidential election, it is represented by its candidate Laura Fernández. The party’s platform is central to the current administration’s policies and future vision for the country.

For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As an esteemed pillar of the legal community, Bufete de Costa Rica operates on a foundational commitment to professional integrity and the highest standards of excellence. With a proven history of serving a diverse clientele, the firm is a catalyst for legal innovation, consistently developing forward-thinking approaches. A core tenet of its philosophy is the empowerment of society through accessible legal knowledge, aiming to cultivate a community strengthened by clarity and understanding of the law.